During his interview on this writer’s Radyo ng Bayan program last Friday, the Genuine Opposition (GO) spokesperson Adel Tamano said he could not promise fewer Senate hearings if the opposition won control of the upper house in today’s (May 14) elections.

That admission hints what the Senate would bring if GO dominates it: more hearings "in aid of legislation" which in 2005 numbered 118 but yield all of two bills filed. That may also mean slow going for pressing bills, including the all-important national budget, which was re-enacted in the past three years, constricting funds for development.

A host of presidentiables might also be keen to rack up media exposure through investigation rather than legislation: poll topnotchers Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda (if elected), billionaire Manny Villar (if re-elected), and sharp-talking Richard Gordon and Miriam Defensor-Santiago.

What about impeachment? Tamano has conceded that the opposition won’t get enough House seats to muster the 80 or so votes needed to elevate an impeachment complaint to the Senate, even if party-list groups, which could take about 30 seats in the polls, all vote with GO.

But try it might. GO senators could stir media and public against the President through endless investigations, to nudge more congressmen to vote against her. This would take several months, so probably no impeachment when Congress opens in July, but maybe late this year or early next — if GO dominates the Senate.

Investigations and impeachment would advance opposition interests in many ways. They would destroy investor confidence and reverse economic resurgence, President Gloria Arroyo’s strongest card. Probing and prosecuting her in the Senate would stall the budget and other legislation needed by the government. And opposition legislators would reap massive media time.

All that would help those gunning for the presidency in 2010 — or even sooner. There is a rumored scheme to install Jinggoy Estrada as Senate president, to be in line for succession if impeachment prospers. Senators deny it, but the possibility is there. After all, if the opposition could unseat the President, it could do the same to the Vice-President, opening the way for the Senate president.

What if TEAM Unity (TU)’s dominance in local campaigning is able to overcome GO’s survey popularity? Administration allies hold some 90% of all congressional, provincial, city and municipal posts, and its candidates face weak or no opposition rivals in 78 of 81 gubernatorial races and 195 of 219 congressional contests. With the command vote estimated at 21%, according to Social Weather Stations, TU’s overwhelming local clout could conservatively swing 6%-7% of voters. That could lift as many as eight TU candidates into the Senate.

A strong TU presence would temper inquisitorial and grandstanding tendencies among opposition senators, and help direct more attention and time toward priority legislation, including long-pending measures to enhance land reform and titling, rationalize business incentives, and address climage change. More important, TU control of the Senate would block GO’s admitted plan to impeach the President — a sure way to sink the peso and bring us back to the instability of 2005.

With political stability, the investment surge, which has pushed economic expansion to almost 6% and added 1.12 million jobs, is set to continue. Last year $2.35 billion in net foreign direct investment was three times the level in 2004, when growth was 6.1%. Exports and tourism are also hitting highs, with March exports earning a record $4.57 billion, and foreign arrivals expected to top 3 million for the first time this year.

All those gains, however, depend on maintaining political stability. Investors, foreign buyers and tourists would junk the Philippines if social unrest threatens the peso, factory schedules, and peace and order. Unfortunately for the country, such a destabilizing scenario would serve the ambitions of certain opposition senatoriables.

Will they get their chance for power plays and public displays in the Senate, or will the voters prefer candidates focused on stability and progress? The world awaits the people’s decision.

TOP

Farmers who availed themselves of loans provided for by the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law but have not been able to pay their amortizations may soon be presented with relief from debt once a Task Force created by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo comes out with its recommendation on this proposal, Cabinet Secretary Ricardo Saludo said today.

In a press briefing, Saludo noted that the amount of unpaid liabilities has already reached the "billions of pesos" mark and that farmer-beneficiaries have been laboring "under the heavy debt" trying to make ends meet.

To address this, Saludo said the President signed last May 11 Administrative Order No. 176 creating a Task Force that will study the "proposed write-off of agrarian reform debt to give relief to thousands of farmer-beneficiaries unable to pay amortizations for many years and thus effect genuine land distribution."

Aside from coming out with a report on the proposed condonation of agrarian reform debt in six months, Saludo said the Task Force "will also evaluate existing agrarian reform models and recommend reforms to make them more responsive and relevant to the needs and interests of farmer beneficiaries."

The Task Force will be chaired by the Agrarian Reform secretary, with the secretaries of Finance and Justice and representatives of the Land Bank of the Philippines and the Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Association as members.

The agrarian debt condonation was first proposed by then Presidential Chief of Staff Mike Defensor and his successor Congressman Joey Salceda.

Agrarian Reform Secretary Nasser Pangandaman welcomed the creation of the task force, saying, "This is a big step towards substantial relief to countless farmers and their families, and making land reform as true instrument of social justice."

Finance Secretary Gary Teves, for his part, gave assurances that financial and legal ramification will be given due consideration in the task force "to ensure that any recommended measures would be implemented without problems."

Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap also lauded the task force, noting that relief for farmer-beneficiaries should also include more irrigation and other support infrastructure.

TOP

Press Secretary and Presidential Spokesperson Ignacio R. Bunye has expressed hope that today’s voting public will be more mature, discerning and see the importance of voting for the right candidates so that the economic reforms of the government may be sustained and bring about the fair sharing of the economic gains to every Filipino.

In his weekly column "The View from the Palace" which comes out tomorrow, Bunye said the great economic strides attained under President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s administration will not be missed by the Filipino voter and will be at the centerpiece of his decision on who to choose in Monday’s midterm elections.

"This administration has made monumental strides in moving our economy forward. And this is very basic. Without good economics, we will not have the wherewithal to fund basic social services without mortgaging our children’s future. Improving the economy is, indeed, the first real step towards breaking the cycle of poverty," Bunye said.

Among the "monumental strides" he cited are:

• Twenty-four consecutive quarters of economic growth (a first since 1986);
• Average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.53 percent since the President’s second term (2004);
• National government deficit in 2006 was only P65 billion, an eight-year low;
• For 2007, Lehman Brothers (a diversified, global financial services firm that delves in investment banking, equity and fixed income sales, research and trading, investment management, private equity, and private banking) forecasts a 5.8 percent GDP growth rate, well above most Asian countries;
• The inflation rate recorded for March 2007 was 2.2 percent, the lowest in 20 years; and,
• The Philippine peso is on a six-year high (Asia’s best performing currency in 2005, appreciating 6.01 percent relative to 2004 and 8.28 percent in 2006).

Aside from these, Bunye said the real estate industry has been experiencing a boom, posting a 26 percent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2006, the highest in 25 years.

Bunye said that according to data from the National Economic and Development Authority, this boom in the industry is attributed to the overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) investments in real estate, among other major factors.

"NEDA Director Dennis Arroyo (no relation to the President) said the boom is fueled by overseas Filipino workers buying condominium) units, call centers demanding office space, and the malls that keep on multiplying. The proliferation of malls is evidence of an expanding middle class, in turn due to the OFW phenomenon," Bunye added.

According to the Press Secretary, NEDA expects the ratio of investments to GDP to rise due to the following factors:

1. Massive infrastructure spending in the "super regions;"
2. The return of investor confidence;
3. Rise in foreign investments due to the country’s strategic location, a well educated, productive and English-speaking work force and the continuous effort to cut red tape to simplify requirements for investing in the Philippines.

Bunye said that these positive economic indicators show that macro and even microeconomic reforms are stable and working.

"We just need to sustain it so that we can bring the economic gains to the poor," he stressed.

TOP